About Analyst Estimates
All analyst estimates displayed in FAST Graphs are median aggregations from multiple analysts. Different estimate types (such as annual estimates vs. long-term growth estimates) may come from different sets of analysts. Not all analysts who provide annual estimates also provide long-term growth estimates, and vice versa. This means estimates across different calculators can vary significantly, even for the same stock.
Overview
FAST Graphs provides five forecasting views to help you evaluate potential future returns. Each view uses a different approach to project where earnings and stock prices might go.
Chart | What It Uses | Time Horizon |
Estimates | Wall Street analyst forecasts | 1-3 years |
Normal P/E | Historical average valuation | 1-3 years |
LT Growth | Long-term growth estimates | 3-6 years |
Historical CAGR | Past earnings growth | 3-6 years |
Custom | Your own assumptions | Any |
Estimate Period Selection
All forecasting calculators include estimate period buttons that allow you to compare how analyst estimates have changed over time:
Current - Latest analyst estimates
1 month - Estimates from 1 month ago
3 months - Estimates from 3 months ago
6 months - Estimates from 6 months ago
This feature helps you track estimate revisions and see how analyst sentiment has shifted. Comparing estimates across different time periods can reveal whether analysts are becoming more bullish or bearish on a stock.
Estimates Chart
What It Shows
The Estimates chart displays where the stock price should trade if the company hits analyst earnings expectations and the market values those earnings at a fair multiple.
How It Works
This view takes current Wall Street consensus estimates for the next 1-3 years and calculates what the stock would be worth if those estimates are met. The fair value line shows the price the stock "should" trade at based on expected earnings growth.
When to Use It
You want to see what the market currently expects
You're making near-term investment decisions (1-3 years)
The company has good analyst coverage
You generally trust analyst projections
What to Look For
Stock below the fair value line: Potentially undervalued based on estimates
Stock above the fair value line: Potentially overvalued based on estimates
Steepness of the line: Shows expected earnings growth trajectory
Limitations
Analyst estimates can be wrong
Only projects 1-3 years forward
Estimates change frequently
Normal P/E Chart
What It Shows
The Normal P/E chart uses the same analyst estimate data as the Estimates chart, but allows you to change the valuation multiple to historical norms instead of using the calculated valuation line that the Estimates chart provides. This helps identify whether the stock is trading at a premium or discount to its typical valuation.
How It Works
This view takes the same projected earnings from analyst estimates, but applies the company's normal (average) P/E ratio instead of a formula-derived multiple. If a stock historically trades at 15x earnings but currently trades at 20x, this chart highlights that premium. This is useful when you want to see fair value based on how the market has historically valued the stock.
When to Use It
You believe stocks tend to return to their historical valuations
You want to identify premium/discount to historical norms
The company has a stable, established valuation history
You're comparing current valuation to the past
What to Look For
Stock above the Normal P/E line: Trading at a premium to historical average
Stock below the Normal P/E line: Trading at a discount to historical average
Gap between current price and line: Size of premium or discount
User Controls
Fiscal Year Dropdown - Select from 1FY to 20FY normal multiple periods
Default: 5FY (5-year normal)
Each option displays the historical normal multiple (e.g., "5FY Normal PE 18x")
This lets you see how the normal P/E has varied across different time horizons.
Limitations
Historical valuations may not be relevant if the business has changed
Mean reversion isn't guaranteed
Some companies deserve to trade at different multiples than they did historically
LT Growth Chart
What It Shows
The Long-Term Growth chart projects earnings 6 years into the future using analyst expectations for sustainable long-term growth. This shows the compounding potential if the company delivers on its long-term growth trajectory.
How It Works
Analysts provide a "long-term growth" (LTG) estimate, typically representing expected 3-5 year annual earnings growth. This view compounds earnings forward at that rate for 6 years to show where the stock could trade if that growth materializes.
Important: LTG estimates are different from the annual estimates used in the Estimates chart and may differ significantly. All estimates we provide are median aggregations, so different estimate types (like LTG vs. annual estimates) can vary because they may come from different sets of analysts. Not all analysts who provide annual estimates also provide LTG estimates, and vice versa.
When to Use It
You're a long-term, buy-and-hold investor
You want to understand compounding potential over many years
You're evaluating whether current price reflects long-term growth
The company has a clear long-term growth story
What to Look For
Steepness of projection: Higher LTG means faster expected growth
Current price vs. future value: Potential upside over the long term
Reasonableness of LTG: Is the growth rate sustainable?
Limitations
Projections become increasingly uncertain further out
LTG estimates may be overly optimistic
Many things can change over 6 years
Not all companies have LTG estimates available
Historical CAGR Chart
What It Shows
The Historical CAGR chart projects future earnings based on how fast the company has actually grown in the past. This answers: "What if the company continues growing at its historical rate?"
How It Works
You select a historical period (1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, or 20 years), and the chart uses that actual growth rate to project earnings forward. This is a backward-looking approach that assumes past patterns will continue.
When to Use It
You believe past performance indicates future results for this company
The company has a consistent historical growth pattern
You want to stress-test scenarios based on proven track record
Analyst estimates are unavailable or seem unreliable
User Controls
Fiscal Year Dropdown - Select from 1FY to 20FY historical CAGR periods
Default: 5FY CAGR
Each option displays the calculated CAGR percentage (e.g., "5FY CAGR 8.5%")
General guidance on period selection:
Shorter periods (1-3 years): More recent trends, may be volatile
Longer periods (10-20 years): Smooths out cycles, shows secular trend
What to Look For
Consistency across periods: Similar CAGRs suggest stable growth
Divergence across periods: Growth may be accelerating or decelerating
Comparison to LTG: Is historical growth higher or lower than analyst expectations?
Limitations
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
Business conditions change over time
Unusually high or low historical periods may skew projections
Custom Chart
What It Shows
The Custom chart lets you input your own growth assumptions and valuation multiple, creating personalized projections based on your investment thesis.
How It Works
You enter a custom growth rate (and optionally a custom P/E multiple), and the chart projects earnings and fair value based on your assumptions rather than analyst estimates or historical data.
When to Use It
You have your own view on growth that differs from analysts
You want to run "what if" scenarios
You're stress-testing optimistic and pessimistic cases
You're modeling specific situations (turnarounds, M&A synergies, etc.)
User Controls
Setting | Description |
Data Source Selection | Choose "3-5 LT Growth" (uses analyst consensus long-term growth as the base, default) or "Estimates" (uses analyst estimates as the base) |
Custom Growth Rate Input | Enter your expected annual growth rate (%) |
Action Buttons:
Draw - Applies your custom growth rate and updates the chart
Reset All - Clears your custom input and resets to default
Example Scenarios
Conservative case: Use lower growth rate than analysts expect
Optimistic case: Use higher growth rate if you see catalysts analysts are missing
Valuation test: Keep growth the same but test different P/E multiples
What to Look For
Sensitivity analysis: How much does fair value change with different assumptions?
Margin of safety: What growth rate is already priced in?
Scenario comparison: Compare your custom view to analyst-based views
How to Choose the Right Chart
For Near-Term Decisions (1-3 years)
Use Estimates when you want to see current market expectations and evaluate whether the stock is fairly priced based on near-term earnings growth.
Use Normal P/E when you want to check if the stock is trading at a premium or discount to its historical valuation.
For Long-Term Analysis (3+ years)
Use LT Growth when you're focused on long-term compounding and want to see what patient investing could deliver.
Use Historical CAGR when you want to see projections based on the company's proven track record rather than analyst forecasts.
For Custom Analysis
Use Custom when you have a differentiated view, want to run scenarios, or need to test specific assumptions.
Understanding the Chart Elements
Price Lines
Black line: Actual historical stock price
Colored line/area: Fair value based on the selected methodology
Key Indicators
Blended P/E: Current price divided by interpolated earnings (shown in Fast Facts)
Growth Rate: The earnings growth rate used in the projection
Fair Value Multiple: The P/E ratio applied to projected earnings
Reading the Results
The Fast Facts panel shows key metrics for the selected view:
Target Price: Projected fair value at the end of the projection period
Total Return: Expected return including dividends
Annualized Return: Total return expressed as annual percentage
Tips for Effective Use
Compare multiple views: Don't rely on just one. Compare Estimates to Normal P/E to LT Growth to get a fuller picture.
Check the growth rates: Make sure the assumed growth rate is reasonable for the company.
Consider the metric: FAST Graphs automatically selects the appropriate earnings metric (EPS, FFO for REITs, etc.), but you can change it if needed.
Look at the historical fit: If the historical price has tracked the fair value line well, projections may be more reliable.
Update your analysis: Estimates change. Revisit your forecasting analysis periodically.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do different charts show different target prices?
Each chart uses different assumptions for growth and valuation. Estimates uses analyst forecasts, Normal P/E uses historical multiples, and LT Growth uses long-term growth expectations. These naturally produce different results.
Which chart is most accurate?
None is inherently more accurate. Each answers a different question:
Estimates: "What do analysts expect?"
Normal P/E: "What's the historical norm?"
LT Growth: "What's the long-term potential?"
Historical CAGR: "What if history repeats?"
What if a chart shows "No Data Available"?
Some charts require specific data that may not be available for all companies:
Estimates requires analyst coverage
LT Growth requires long-term growth estimates
Historical CAGR requires sufficient earnings history
How often is the data updated?
Price data: Daily
Analyst estimates: Daily (as analysts publish updates)
Historical data: Updates with each earnings report